This plot has no y labels and you can tell arbitrarily different stories if you’re willing to manipulate it so it should be entirely ignored.

【引用 @hilbertspaess】This slide from the Anthropic IPO roadshow was a big factor in my decision to leave. It’s an insane plot and I’m surprised they made it public.

It shows the compute efficiency of pretraining over time. The y-axis is a log scale: they are seeing continued superexponential algorithmic progress.

Mythos was not a one-time deviation, but a point on a superexponential. They could already retrain Mythos with a fraction of the compute originally needed.

It doesn’t strictly imply a software-only intelligence explosion- they have been spending more on R+D. But algorithmic improvements do not require ridiculous creative genius and are on the verge of being automated. You do the math.