Anthropic 在修订版 S-1 中表示，其内部对未来模型的估算和预期显示，公司可能“即将”满足“由 AI 带来的显著加速进展”这一 RSP 定义。按该定义，门槛是 AI 能力进展速度达到 Anthropic 在至少 3 个模型代际中观察到的无显著 AI 参与 AI 研发时的最快扩展进展速度的 2 倍，且这种翻倍可能源于研究与工程自动化。推文指出，2 倍进展速度相当于把 2 年的进展压缩到 1 年，例如原本一年提升 9 倍，达到门槛时预期一年可提升 81 倍。
prinz:
【引用 @deredleritt3r】Anthropic says in its amended S-1 that its internal estimates and expectations about FUTURE models indicate that it may "imminently" meet the definition if "dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI".
Under the RSP, this means that Anthropic observes or expects 2x the rate of progress in AI capabilities vs. the rate Anthropic would expect and the fastest rate of extended progress observed over at least 3 model generations without significant AI contributions to AI R&D, plus it's plausible that this doubling is due to automation of research and/or engineering such that it's likely that there will be even greater acceleration.
Note that "2x the rate of progress" means that 2 years of progress would be compressed into 1 year. So, if Anthropic would have improved its models 9x in one year without AI-enabled acceleration, this threshold would be reached when Anthropic expects to be able to improve its models by 81x in one year (9^2).
Anthropic says in its amended S-1 that its internal estimates and expectations about FUTURE models indicate that it may "imminently" meet the definition if "dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI". Under the RSP, this means that Anthropic observes or expects 2x the rate of progress in AI capabilities vs. the rate Anthropic would expect and the fastest rate of extended progress observed over at least 3 model generations without significant AI contributions to AI R&D, plus it's plausible that this doubling is due to automation of research and/or engineering such that it's likely that there will be even greater acceleration. Note that "2x the rate of progress" means that 2 years of progress would be compressed into 1 year. So, if Anthropic would have improved its models 9x in one year without AI-enabled acceleration, this threshold would be reached when Anthropic expects to be able to improve its models by 81x in one year (9^2).在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Andrew Curran · x.com